Tiverton, Rhode Island 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

218
FXUS61 KBOX 181806
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
206 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Continued dry weather this morning. Low risk for some showers
this afternoon across northern MA. Breezy and warm weather
expected Saturday, along with scattered showers ahead of an
approaching cold front. Drier and mild behind the front Sunday.
Weather pattern turns more unsettled early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:

* Gusty southwest winds from 20 to 30 mph with low relative
  humidity of 20-30 percent may support elevated fire weather
  potential

High pressure shifts east from the Mid Atlantic coast today.
This will shift winds around to the southwest and begin a
warmup, at least away from the immediate south coast of New
England. Some gusts from 20 to 30 mph will be possible in what
should be a well mixed boundary layer. This could lead to fire
weather concerns where fuels have sufficiently dried out.

A weak passing mid level shortwave could trigger spotty showers
late today, but most of this would be towards northern New
England. Mid level lapse rates are expected to be rather steep,
but am not confident there will be enough humidity to worry
about any thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Mainly dry and gusty conditions continue tonight, but
  increasing clouds.
* Well above normal temperatures expected.

A warm front should cross our region this evening, setting the
stage for a very warm Saturday. Precipitable water starts to
increase, but likely will not be sufficient to support much more
than spotty showers, and even then more towards northern New
England.

Plenty of clouds and gusty southwest winds will prevent
temperatures from falling off much from daytime highs. Expecting
low temperatures tonight to be just slightly lower than what a
normal high temperature would be for mid April. This higher
starting point and a little bit of sunshine Saturday should
really boost temperatures. Many areas away from the south coast
should reach the 70s, with a few locations even making a run at
80F. Water temperatures should limit high temperatures to the
55-60F across the Cape and islands as well as the immediate
south coast.

An approaching cold front late in the day should tap into the
increased humidity with a greater risk for late day showers.
Given the timing, this would be mainly towards the western third
of southern New England before sunset starts to put a damper on
overall lift.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Dry and breezy conditions expected Sunday.
* Dry for much of Monday with showers arriving early-late
  evening.

Saturday Night & Sunday:

A cold front moves through late Saturday night switching winds
to the NW. Any residual showers diminish by Sunday morning as
dry subsident flow works in. A cooler airmass advects in behind
the front supporting a cooler day Sunday with highs in the 50s
for the Cape/Islands and low 60s elsewhere. An enhanced pressure
gradient will support breezy NW winds with gusts 25-35 mph.
There is a low chance for a few gusts up to 40 for the higher
elevation spots in interior MA.

Early Next Week:

A brief upper level ridge shifts over southern New England
Monday yielding light NW winds and a switch to onshore flow
along the coastline in the afternoon. Temperatures trend slightly
cooler than Sunday with highs in the 50s to near 60. It will be
dry much of the day with showers likely arriving in the early-
late Monday evening timeframe. There is a low chance (<20%) for
a stray shower late afternoon.

A round of showers moves through overnight into Tuesday with
light rainfall amounts. Tuesday likely stays unsettled for the
morning as any remaining showers exit off to the east followed
by gradually drying conditions behind it in the afternoon. Highs
trend slightly above normal in the low to mid 60s with 50s on
the Cape/Islands.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update:

Rest of This Afternoon Through 12z Saturday: High confidence.

VFR, with increasing mid to high clouds. SW winds 10-15 kt with
gusts 20-25 kt through about 02z Sat, then to more sustained
SW winds 10-15 kt. Low level wind shear likely after midnight
with gusts easing and as a 35-50 kt SWly low level jet moves
across Southern New England.

Saturday: High confidence.

VFR for most airports, although some borderline MVFR/VFR
ceilings after 21z Sat for western airports as a cold front
approaches. SW winds 10-15 kt to start the morning, but gusts
25-30 kt develop by 13-15z.

Saturday Night: High confidence.

Mainly VFR, though borderline MVFR ceilings could accompany
cold front associated with isolated to widely scattered SHRA
thru 03z Sun. Cold front`s passage marked by rapid clearing but
also with NWly gusts 25-40 kt, strongest higher terrain airports
(BAF, ORH).

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight
chance SHRA.

Sunday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Sunday Night through Monday: VFR.

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

High confidence through Saturday.

Good visibility with increasing southwest winds today. A warm
front crosses the waters late today into tonight, continuing
gusty southwest winds into Saturday. Rough seas eventually
develop across the outer coastal waters tonight into Saturday.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ231-233-235-254>256.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ232-
     234-236-237.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ250.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Belk/Mensch
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Mensch
AVIATION...Loconto/FT
MARINE...Belk/Mensch